vvhatsthatonyourback

Jan 19 2016, 09:19 AM

Decent suggestions.

As a supporter, I keep thinking that we might be able to escape, but then I look at what would be required.

If we won 6 games in a row (which has maybe never ever happened!) and other teams continued to pick up points at the rate they have been doing so far this season, we would still be bottom by a couple of points.

More realistically, if we picked up two points per game until the end of the season, that should be enough to just about avoid relegation even via the playoff. So we would need to average an Aberdeen second place rate of points accumulation between now and the end of the season. Seems very unlikely, although we would have the advantage of being in the bottom half split for the last five games where points could be easier to come by for us, but also our relegation rivals.

So we're basically down, barring an unprecedented run of form.

Conan the Destroyer

Jan 19 2016, 09:52 AM

1. Somebody in the league goes into administration and is deducted 15 points. And then it would be touch and go.

radger

Jan 8 2016, 07:21 PM

Getting the case for optimism in before we win at the weekend, I'm far from convinced we'll go down. 11 points is a sizeable gap, but points wise that can be closed in 4 matches. Granted we have only had 2 wins all season but I wouldn't underestimate the effect of momentum. It's also worth remembering that the last team to stay in as bad as position as we are was the United team of 2000/01 and we were absolutely dire the first half of that season, far worse than we are now.

For me one of the biggest factors we are where we are is that we have a losing mentality, rather than being a miles worse team than every other side in the league. If we were the worst team out there then our chances of putting together a run of results like we need would be a very long shot. Looking at the results since Mixu took over, there's been ten games, 7 have been defeats, 5 of which were by single goal margins (the other two being to 1st and 2nd). We led in 3 of those games as well as one of the 2 games we drew. That to me doesn't tell me we are the worst team in the league, but there is clearly a huge fragility there. A fragility that causes us to gets nervous when in the lead (and in front of goal, missed a tonne of easy chances this season) and dispirited when falling behind.

One of the big problems and reasons for this has been the huge amount of inexperience in the team, from a combination of having lost senior players and injuries to other experienced players. Paul Paton wasn't popular with everyone but what he did do well was provide a lot of protection to the defence when he played, something the young players this season haven't done. The goalkeeping situation has also been massively detrimental with mistakes from all our young goalkeepers costing us points. I'd also argue that the influence of a goalkeeper extends far beyond dealing with shots and crosses. A goalkeeper should be able to direct and command his defenders to deal with danger, positioning, awareness and such, something Zwick and Sromnik haven't done to any extent whatsoever. Despite his mistake in the derby, I am optimistic that Kawashima and the extensive and high level experience he has should be able to help us considerably.

That said it would be naive to think that our defensive problems will all suddenly be solved. Dillon while a great servant is past his best, Durnan is far too error prone, Morris seemed forever sidelined by injuries and Gunning hasn't had a great time of it since returning (and I agree he's a massive fud). Cross a ball into our box and we are all over the place. I wonder if that was part of the reason to go to a back 3, but it doesn't seem to have changed anything. For me a Darren Dods type figure would be massive for us. Someone who will lead and organise and win a header or two. That'll do me. Remains our big weakness by a distance at the moment just now though.

Looking at the squad just now there are players there that can get us results, Mckay is always a goal threat, there are solid (if unspectacular) players such as Rankin, Erskine and Mcgowan and 4 recent signings that have played at a high level, Demel, Kawashima, Pongolle (if he is ever fit) and now Riske. There's something of a spine there. And hopefully that can take some of the burden off the shoulders of the young boys who have suffered this season having not had that. Souttar and Fraser have loads of talent and are definitely capable of being matchwinners, Spittal can be too. I don't see any reason why we couldn't beat any of the teams from 4-5th down on any given day.

Killie are rubbish, they're definitely the most likely team to catch. We'll have to play all the bottom 6 teams twice more, there's 30 points available just against them. If we can grab a couple of wins, suddenly there's a bit of momentum, a bit of a lift and a bit of belief. The second half of the 00/01 season was one of my favourite ever as a United fan. Part of that was due to how dire the team had been in the first half of the season and yet we managed to turn that round. 2 results and suddenly everyone's behind the team again and it can be done!

I believe!!!

vvhatsthatonyourback

Jan 19 2016, 11:14 AM

radger

Jan 8 2016, 07:21 PM

Getting the case for optimism in before we win at the weekend, I'm far from convinced we'll go down. 11 points is a sizeable gap, but points wise that can be closed in 4 matches. Granted we have only had 2 wins all season but I wouldn't underestimate the effect of momentum. It's also worth remembering that the last team to stay in as bad as position as we are was the United team of 2000/01 and we were absolutely dire the first half of that season, far worse than we are now.

For me one of the biggest factors we are where we are is that we have a losing mentality, rather than being a miles worse team than every other side in the league. If we were the worst team out there then our chances of putting together a run of results like we need would be a very long shot. Looking at the results since Mixu took over, there's been ten games, 7 have been defeats, 5 of which were by single goal margins (the other two being to 1st and 2nd). We led in 3 of those games as well as one of the 2 games we drew. That to me doesn't tell me we are the worst team in the league, but there is clearly a huge fragility there. A fragility that causes us to gets nervous when in the lead (and in front of goal, missed a tonne of easy chances this season) and dispirited when falling behind.

One of the big problems and reasons for this has been the huge amount of inexperience in the team, from a combination of having lost senior players and injuries to other experienced players. Paul Paton wasn't popular with everyone but what he did do well was provide a lot of protection to the defence when he played, something the young players this season haven't done. The goalkeeping situation has also been massively detrimental with mistakes from all our young goalkeepers costing us points. I'd also argue that the influence of a goalkeeper extends far beyond dealing with shots and crosses. A goalkeeper should be able to direct and command his defenders to deal with danger, positioning, awareness and such, something Zwick and Sromnik haven't done to any extent whatsoever. Despite his mistake in the derby, I am optimistic that Kawashima and the extensive and high level experience he has should be able to help us considerably.

That said it would be naive to think that our defensive problems will all suddenly be solved. Dillon while a great servant is past his best, Durnan is far too error prone, Morris seemed forever sidelined by injuries and Gunning hasn't had a great time of it since returning (and I agree he's a massive fud). Cross a ball into our box and we are all over the place. I wonder if that was part of the reason to go to a back 3, but it doesn't seem to have changed anything. For me a Darren Dods type figure would be massive for us. Someone who will lead and organise and win a header or two. That'll do me. Remains our big weakness by a distance at the moment just now though.

Looking at the squad just now there are players there that can get us results, Mckay is always a goal threat, there are solid (if unspectacular) players such as Rankin, Erskine and Mcgowan and 4 recent signings that have played at a high level, Demel, Kawashima, Pongolle (if he is ever fit) and now Riske. There's something of a spine there. And hopefully that can take some of the burden off the shoulders of the young boys who have suffered this season having not had that. Souttar and Fraser have loads of talent and are definitely capable of being matchwinners, Spittal can be too. I don't see any reason why we couldn't beat any of the teams from 4-5th down on any given day.

Killie are rubbish, they're definitely the most likely team to catch. We'll have to play all the bottom 6 teams twice more, there's 30 points available just against them. If we can grab a couple of wins, suddenly there's a bit of momentum, a bit of a lift and a bit of belief. The second half of the 00/01 season was one of my favourite ever as a United fan. Part of that was due to how dire the team had been in the first half of the season and yet we managed to turn that round. 2 results and suddenly everyone's behind the team again and it can be done!

I believe!!!

I wonder how radger feels about this now?