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The Russell catch-all transfer thread
Topic Started: Apr 20 2013, 01:07 PM (22,044 Views)
whatsthatonyourback
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Waldo Jeffers
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Setenza
Apr 29 2013, 08:58 AM
Never had a job that half my net income in the last year.
Ken. Nightmare. You'd ask to renegotiate your contract or leave, wouldn't you?
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Setenza
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whatsthatonyourback
Apr 29 2013, 09:10 AM
Setenza
Apr 29 2013, 08:58 AM
Never had a job that half my net income in the last year.
Ken. Nightmare. You'd ask to renegotiate your contract or leave, wouldn't you?
Yes, leave with a weeks notice and take the extra cash. Players are in different contract situation than anyone on here I'd assume.

And we're back to wage inflation from the employers angle.

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whatsthatonyourback
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Waldo Jeffers
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Setenza
Apr 29 2013, 09:14 AM
whatsthatonyourback
Apr 29 2013, 09:10 AM
Setenza
Apr 29 2013, 08:58 AM
Never had a job that half my net income in the last year.
Ken. Nightmare. You'd ask to renegotiate your contract or leave, wouldn't you?
Yes, leave with a weeks notice and take the extra cash. Players are in different contract situation than anyone on here I'd assume.

And we're back to wage inflation from the employers angle.

Well exactly. Leave the club and the club gets a fee. Ask for a new contract and the club protects the value of its asset. There needn't be wage inflation - you might accept the same contract as before, as it pays good money up front.

It hurts the club's cashflow paying more up front, of course, but there are no surprises about players they thought would be good but aren't hanging around on a high wage while not being any use to us.

Frontloading encourages players to sign and encourages them to leave before their contract peters out. Would you agree with that statement, irrespective of the cost/benefit to the club?
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Setenza
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whatsthatonyourback
Apr 29 2013, 10:01 AM
Well exactly. Leave the club and the club gets a fee. Ask for a new contract and the club protects the value of its asset. There needn't be wage inflation - you might accept the same contract as before, as it pays good money up front.
That's the inflation.

I'm worth £100k/year, but I've just been paid £125k/year average. If I'm now worth £125, then I'd expect £125k+50%, again over paying.


Of course, could negotiate to pay less, but then that's not much of an incentive, so it's back to square one. If I'm worth £100k again, but you pay me £125, then you're overpaying. If you pay me £100k, then i've taken a pay cut.
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Setenza
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whatsthatonyourback
Apr 29 2013, 10:01 AM
Frontloading encourages players to sign and encourages them to leave before their contract peters out. Would you agree with that statement, irrespective of the cost/benefit to the club?
It does in part, but not for me in an appealing way.
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whatsthatonyourback
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Waldo Jeffers
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Setenza
Apr 29 2013, 10:09 AM
whatsthatonyourback
Apr 29 2013, 10:01 AM
Well exactly. Leave the club and the club gets a fee. Ask for a new contract and the club protects the value of its asset. There needn't be wage inflation - you might accept the same contract as before, as it pays good money up front.
That's the inflation.

I'm worth £100k/year, but I've just been paid £125k/year average. If I'm now worth £125, then I'd expect £125k+50%, again over paying.


Of course, could negotiate to pay less, but then that's not much of an incentive, so it's back to square one. If I'm worth £100k again, but you pay me £125, then you're overpaying. If you pay me £100k, then i've taken a pay cut.
That's an incentive. You view it as inflation - it can also be viewed as an essential part of the incentive the club offers/forces/tricks the player into playing well.

It's also the cost of securing the player on a longer contract, thereby retaining the chance of a transfer fee.

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whatsthatonyourback
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Waldo Jeffers
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Setenza
Apr 29 2013, 10:11 AM
whatsthatonyourback
Apr 29 2013, 10:01 AM
Frontloading encourages players to sign and encourages them to leave before their contract peters out. Would you agree with that statement, irrespective of the cost/benefit to the club?
It does in part, but not for me in an appealing way.
It does in part? Which part? It either does or it doesn't.

Whether you find it appealing or not we can park for the moment - I just want to know if you think the basic concept of frontloading contracts would make a player more likely to sign and more likely to leave rather than running down his contract and leaving for free.
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Conan the Destroyer
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How about they sign a new contract or leave before entering their final year, or else they are shot? Problem solved.

I would imagine the number of players you would actually have to shoot would be fairly low.
Edited by Conan the Destroyer, Apr 29 2013, 10:20 AM.
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whatsthatonyourback
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Waldo Jeffers
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Conan the Destroyer
Apr 29 2013, 10:20 AM
How about they sign a new contract or leave before entering their final year, or else they are shot? Problem solved.

I would imagine the number of players you would actually have to shoot would be fairly low.
Skeletor has already suggested that I think.
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Naebody
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whatsthatonyourback
Apr 29 2013, 08:23 AM
With no clear benefit and lots of extra complication, I don't see what the loan variant has over a simple frontloaded contract.

What is the advantage?
1. It's not even slightly complicated. The legal framework exists already. I cannot say that with certainty about a contract with deflating pay.

2. As we've already established, a loan has the benefit of being easier to understand, and probably easier to sell.

But it's a small distinction in which down we should not get bogged.

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Naebody
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Okay. I've drawn some f*cking pictures.

Posted Image

That's the current contract structure. Time is on the horizontal and player value to the club is on the vertical. The red box is pay. The important bit here is that the middle box is a variable contract length, bookended by a first year and a last year.

The blue line is a good player. Let's call him Russell.

The green line is an average one. Let's call him Watson.

The yellow line is a crap one. Let's call him McCord.

Russell (the blue line) is worth his wages at the end of year one and has far surpassed them by the end of year two. He then enters a period in which he rapidly loses value as his contract heads to expiry.

Watson (the green line) is worth his wages towards the middle of his deal then loses value as his contract heads to expiry.

McCord (the yellow line) is never worth his wages.

For the sake of argument let's assume an arbitrary three-year deal length. We can see that the club have paid three players the same wage and have got three years of value out of it (ie. two years for Russell, one for Watson.)

But the only player with a financial reason to extend his contract at year two is McCord. The other two can wait a year confident that they'll find a wage at a similar (Watson) or higher (Russell) level.

Now, switch to this.

Posted Image

The club is still paying three players the same wage and getting three years of value out of it (ie. two years for Russell, one for Watson.) The trajectory of their developments are identical. Pay (the size of the red block) is identical.

All that changes is that you're discouraging players from entering their final year.

For players on the yellow line (who, let's face it, are the majority), nothing really changes for the club.

For those on the green line, the disincentive of a final-year pay cut means the club's in much better position to negotiate a career extension once they hit a level where their pay equals their worth. The front-loading is marginally tougher on cashflow for these players because you've paid what is in effect a deposit on their career at the club, repayable when it ends.

For those on the blue line, who quickly become worth more than they're paid, the final-year pay cut is an extra disincentive not to see their contract out and move for a free. This is no more inflationary than currently; you have to pay people what they're worth to expect to retain their services, right?

So I conclude by asking, what's your f*cking problem? f*ck.


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whatsthatonyourback
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Waldo Jeffers
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Bravo
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Setenza
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It just doesn't work. I think everyone gets it, just disagrees on the appeal from various angles.

Quote:
 
All that changes is that you're discouraging players from entering their final year.


Why would a player sign a contract that ends up putting them in a worse position than an alterative contract? Because if they're good, then they'll be able to get a bonus of some cash. But since players can't control when they leave (club still accepts the offer), then it's out of their hands. Who even knows if someone will offer for the player, even if the player and the club want to sell. Right now we'd take a fee for Russell, and he's likely looking to move on. But will someone offer an acceptable amount? If not now, in 6 months? Or why not last window? It's out of the players control. But they're stuffed on a contract that's going to cut their income by 1/2 in a year if a deal isn't done.

But even if they see it out they're no worse off than before you'll say, with the chance of a bonus. But that declining income is a real turn off. Who wants to have their income halved in the last year when they're doing well?

So they should extend you say. But they want to leave. Russell etc aren't on £100k / year, probably someething more like £35k? So last year's wage is going to be £17.5k. And the bonus for loyalty is also £17.5k. Which is nice, but about 1.75% of a £1m transfer fee. But if you're wanting to leave, surely waiting and moving on for free is better than £17.5k and being trapped in a new 3 year contract at a club you don't want to be at.

Or they could just demand a better contract full stop, or ask for a % of a transfer fee, or a release clause (do they even still exist..?) or one of the many current ways in which they've got to try to get their way. Our budgets are being cut, there's no room for extra incentives, and the players have the control over the contract negoiations. They won't sign up for a deal like this.



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whatsthatonyourback
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Waldo Jeffers
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Setenza
Apr 29 2013, 10:24 PM
Why would a player sign a contract that ends up putting them in a worse position than an alterative contract?
Set - hate to bring you back to that simple question from earlier, but this is fundamental.

How is signing a contract worse for the player if it pays him more earlier?

If your quote here is understood correctly, you are saying that because he gets paid less at the end that makes it worse for him, but that is only half the story. He gets paid more at the start. Remember?

Even if there were no benefits at all to getting paid more at the start, that would make the two contracts equal. But there are benefits of being paid early. Aren't there?

Simple question to you. Would you rather be paid more early on any job?
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Setenza
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whatsthatonyourback
Apr 29 2013, 10:50 PM
Setenza
Apr 29 2013, 10:24 PM
Why would a player sign a contract that ends up putting them in a worse position than an alterative contract?
Set - hate to bring you back to that simple question from earlier, but this is fundamental.

How is signing a contract worse for the player if it pays him more earlier?

If your quote here is understood correctly, you are saying that because he gets paid less at the end that makes it worse for him, but that is only half the story. He gets paid more at the start. Remember?

Even if there were no benefits at all to getting paid more at the start, that would make the two contracts equal. But there are benefits of being paid early. Aren't there?

Simple question to you. Would you rather be paid more early on any job?
Why are we paying early?

There's an up and and down. The down is timed to be at the employers advantage to encourage them to extend / leave. It puts the employee in a weaker position with the looming pay cut. Thats the employers encouragement for them to act, but it's weaker position for the player. If it wasn't a weaker position, then the front loading idea would be pointless as it wouldn't encourage the employee.

So yes, on balance the pay amount is the same, but the position the player is in at the point before the pay cut is a weak one. That's the disadvantage to the player in that they will end up a weak position.
Edited by Setenza, Apr 29 2013, 11:01 PM.
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